Sunday, 10 October 2010

Lib Dem by-election results continue better than polls

Once again we bring you good news. 


My Birkdale Ward colleague Simon Shaw has updated the psephological research he carried out a month ago.  That showed that, in the 57 principal council by-elections held between the General Election and the end of August, Lib Dems had made net gains of 3 seats in that period.



Simon has continued his analysis to the end of September and the picture continues to be very encouraging.  Counting the 26 city-wide elections in both Norwich and Exeter at the beginning of September, there were no fewer than 55 by-elections in September.  For the month, Lib Dems were net unchanged, with 7 seats successfully defended, and 3 gains balanced by 3 losses.  Interestingly, none of those losses were to Labour.

In detail, the movements between the parties in September are as below:


Over the 5 months May – September 2010 Lib Dems remain net 3 seats up: 16 successful defences and 9 gains more than compensating for 6 losses.  Labour are net 11 seats up; Conservatives net 10 seats down and Others are net 4 seats down.

For the 112 by-elections in the 5 months post-General Election to the end of September, the detail of the movements between the parties are as below:



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